Will AI replace software engineers?
Not as a profession, according to BLS, which projects 10% growth for software developers and testers from 2025 to 2035 and names AI as a driver of demand. But the work is changing faster than almost any other: Anthropic’s data ranks computer programmers first of 756 occupations for observed AI use, and companies including Salesforce and Coinbase have cited AI productivity when freezing engineering hiring or cutting staff. Fixing and modifying code is the most exposed work; supervising people and owning requirements is less so.
- US jobs (2025)
- 1,717,800
- Projected change, 2025–35
- +10%
- Median pay (2025)
- $135,980
The job count is for software developers only; the 10% projection covers developers, QA analysts and testers together.
What does the research say?
- Microsoft Research (2025)AI applicability score: 0.278, ranked 120 of 785 occupations0–1 score from 2024 Bing Copilot conversations: how much of the occupation’s work people used AI for, how often it succeeded, and how broadly. Higher means more applicable.Source ↗
- Anthropic Economic Index (2026)Observed exposure: 0.29, ranked 73 of 756 occupations0–1 share of the occupation’s time-weighted tasks that AI could theoretically speed up and that already show up in work-related Claude usage. Higher means more exposed.Source ↗
Which parts of the job are most exposed?
- Modify existing software to correct errors, allow it to adapt to new hardware, or to improve its performance ↗
- Store, retrieve, and manipulate data for analysis of system capabilities and requirements ↗
- Analyze user needs and software requirements to determine feasibility of design within time and cost constraints ↗
What’s actually happening at companies?
- May 5, 2026Coinbase cut about 700 jobs (14%); CEO Brian Armstrong said engineers using AI could "ship in days what used to take a team weeks" and is reorganizing into 'AI-native pods'.Company-confirmed ↗
- May 16, 2025Washington WARN notices (via Bloomberg): software engineering was over 40% of ~2,000 Microsoft layoffs in the state; Nadella had said ~30% of Microsoft code is AI-written, but Microsoft said attributing the cuts to AI would be misleading.Reported ↗
- Feb 27, 2025Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff on the Q4 FY25 earnings call: "We're not going to hire any new engineers this year. We're seeing 30 percent productivity increase on engineering" (AI tools/agents).Company-confirmed ↗
What happens when AI meets a merger?
After an acquisition, engineering overlap is usually about platforms: two codebases doing the same job, two infrastructure teams, two internal tools groups. The platform that loses usually loses its team. AI shifts that math further, because a smaller team can now maintain more code. In the Acquisition Log, buyers from Broadcom (VMware) to Capital One (Discover) cut corporate roles anywhere from days to months after closing.
Every acquisition ends with a spreadsheet: roles, costs, overlaps. AI adds a column. As buyers get more data on what every employee does, and tools that can do part of it, the question stops being “do we need two of these?” and becomes “how many do we need at all?” That’s why the moves below matter more in a deal year than any other.
What should software engineers do now?
- Own outcomes, not tickets: requirements, architecture and the production systems the business depends on.
- Get very good with AI coding tools, and be the one who reviews and is accountable for what they produce.
- Move toward the parts of the product the company, or a buyer, is paying for.
- In a merger, find out which platform is winning. Volunteer for the migration if it’s yours.
- Keep a record of shipped work with impact attached: revenue, uptime, costs cut.
Questions people ask
Will AI replace software engineers?
BLS doesn’t expect it to: software developer and tester jobs are projected to grow 10% from 2025 to 2035, with AI listed as a source of demand. The job is changing quickly, though, and routine coding and debugging are among the most AI-exposed tasks measured.
Are companies cutting engineers because of AI?
Some have said so. Salesforce’s CEO said in February 2025 it would not hire new engineers that year, citing a 30% productivity gain. Coinbase cut about 14% of staff in May 2026 and cited AI. Microsoft, whose 2025 Washington layoffs were heavily engineering, said attributing them to AI would be misleading.
Find out where you stand before the org chart changes.
Take the Survival Fitness Score →Figures come from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the published research linked above. Exposure measures estimate how much of an occupation’s work AI could help with or perform; they are not predictions of job losses.